This February, the war against Ukraine enters its third year. After two years of hard conflict the battlelines appear increasingly static, with Kyiv’s summer and autumn counteroffensive having failed to meet many in the West’s high (if unrealistic) expectations. While the United States’ Congress debates over continued funding for Ukraine, the European Union looks set to approve a large-scale package of support for Kyiv. Russia, in turn, is spending greater amounts of state resources on defense, keeping its own economy afloat through Keynesian economics. The recognition that the war will be much longer than anticipated appears to be spreading, but the commensurate policy actions still appear lagging.
What does the year ahead hold for Ukraine? Will it be a year of “active defense” and force reconstitution for Ukraine or will Kyiv go on the offense? Will political uncertainty in the United States undermine Kyiv’s planning? Will Europe be in a position to fill any gaps left by America? What does Ukraine need for its defense today and offense tomorrow? What lessons can we draw from Ukrainian and Russian adaptation? What does each tell us about the course of the conflict? Perhaps most importantly, what is a viable theory of victory for Ukraine?
The Center for the Study of the Presidency & Congress is pleased to invite you to an online conversation with Lt. Gen. David Barno, Dr. Nora Bensahel, and Michael Kofman to discuss these questions, and many more, and to reflect on the war after two years and what the year ahead holds for Kyiv. They will be in conversation with Joshua C. Huminski, the Director of the Mike Rogers Center for Intelligence and Global Affairs.
Please register via the link, below.
Biographies
Lieutenant General David W. Barno, USA (Ret.) is Professor of Practice and Senior Fellow at the Merrill Center of the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). He is also a Contributing Editor and Columnist for War on the Rocks, and an Adjunct Research Staff Member at the Institute for Defense Analyses. General Barno completed a thirty-year active duty Army career where he commanded at every level, serving as an infantry officer, Ranger and paratrooper. He completed three tours in special operations forces, serving with Army Ranger battalions in combat during both the Panama and Grenada invasions. In 2003, he was selected to establish a new three-star operational headquarters in Kabul, Afghanistan and take command of the 20,000 U.S. and coalition forces in Operation Enduring Freedom. For nineteen months as the senior American commander, Barno was responsible for overall coalition military leadership of the war in Afghanistan, implementing a new counterinsurgency strategy in close partnership with the U.S. embassy and coalition allies.
Dr. Nora Bensahel is a Visiting Professor of Strategic Studies and Senior Fellow of the Merrill Center at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), and a Contributing Editor and Columnist for War on the Rocks. She is also an Adjunct Research Staff Member at the Institute for Defense Analyses. Her work focuses on the future of warfare, and military strategy and operations. She is the co-author of the recently-published book Adaptation Under Fire: How Militaries Change in Wartime, and currently serves on the Executive Board of the Leadership Council for Women in National Security (LCWINS). Before joining SAIS, Dr. Bensahel was a Distinguished Scholar in Residence at the School of International Service at American University and a Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council. Prior to that, she was a senior fellow and co-director of the Responsible Defense Program at the Center for a New American Security.
Michael Kofman is a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where he focuses on the Russian military and Eurasian security issues. Prior to joining Carnegie in 2023, he served as Director of the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analyses, where he conducted research on the capabilities, strategy, and military thought of the Russian Armed Forces. Widely recognized as one of the leading authorities on the Russian military, and the Russo-Ukrainian War, Kofman has led foundational work in the field, and is routinely cited in major publications. He also regularly advises senior government and military officials.