GEOTECH: POSITIONING THE UNITED STATES & ALLIES FOR THE COMPETITION AHEAD

To borrow from Winston Churchill’s phrasing, the U.S.-China competition is now at the “end of the beginning.” While the perceptions of the security threat have grown, focused on the prospect of conflict over Taiwan, “de-risking” has become the term-du-jour when it comes to business with China, and it is now being used to describe how to navigate not only the changing nature of doing business in China, but also the response from Washington.

China’s political Tightening under Xi, the pandemic, growing hawkishness in U.S. politics, and myriad other factors have now reshaped the U.S.-China relationship away from the past consensus on the benefits of economic interdependence. While the consensus has changed, the interdependence remains. Amid this paradigm shift in how the two powers see each other, the private sector and third countries: from allies and partners to those in the Global South are in very similar positions—all forced to navigate the divergence between Washington and Beijing.

This report reflects, and respects, the off-the-record nature of private discussions, combined with open-source research, public events, and the analysis of CSPC staff, advisors, and fellows. Portions of this report draw from the analysis of CSPC op-eds, white papers, and our Friday News Analysis. Our analysis of legislation is not meant to be exhaustive—nor endorse legislation—but to track the progress of substantive, and likely, Geotech policymaking and implementation, and to suggest policy approaches and considerations that might result in more effective and workable policy implementation between the United States and allies to best meet U.S. policy goals and strengthen American innovation, competitiveness, and security.