the 5g rollout and planning for 6g

In Geotech competition, one of the most important areas of concern is leadership in 5G and 6G technologies. Current and future 5G networks, as well as future 6G technologies and standards, provide the connectivity underpinning digital societies and connected technologies of the Internet of Things (IoT).

The development and rollout of 5G networks is not simply about providing faster downloads for smartphones—though that is an advantage. 5G networks’ high speed and quick response means that they are primed to provide networked connectivity in fields such as transportation, agriculture, manufacturing, healthcare, and defense. Just as the previous leap from 3G to 4G unlocked the potential of the smartphone and an ecosystem of app-based enterprises and services, 5G will provide revolutionary real-time connectivity to important existing sectors.

Take agriculture, for example, and one can see the potential of 5G technology to change an entire industry—both in its operations and along the course of its supply chain. From sensors in fields providing real time soil, moisture, and nutrient data to farmers and connections to autonomous farm equipment, to connected systems in warehouses and food distributors connected to the shelves in supermarkets, 5G will allow us to unlock and transmit data for important supply chains, critical infrastructures, and advanced platforms. Beyond the impact on specific industries, 5G networks can help to bridge the digital divide, bringing high speed connectivity to under- and un-connected households in both rural and urban America. Those are just some of the potential revolutionary impacts that technology and industry experts foresee. Just as one would have been hard-pressed to anticipate the success of 4G smartphone apps like ridesharing when holding a 3G flip phone, some future 5G-based successes are just emerging in innovators’ imaginations.

As policymakers have increasingly focused on Geotech competition and the importance of 5G networks, we have seen efforts to speed the rollout of 5G networks and invest in future 6G leadership—yet legislative efforts have also been stalled. Rapid build outs of 5G networks have come after FCC streamlining of regulation and billions of dollars of infrastructure investments and spectrum purchases by telecoms, yet the rollout in the United States was marred by the poor coordination regarding interference with aircraft—something that was not an issue in other high-tech countries where 5G rollouts took place.

Analyses of the players in 5G and 6G, as well as government policies, continues to illustrate the importance of the broader innovation ecosystem that we have discussed in our previous Geotech reports. The disruptions of the pandemic and resulting shocks to supply chains have illustrated the fragility of one part of this ecosystem, while also raising concerns about our dependence on foreign suppliers. These security concerns must be balanced with the realities, revenues, and benefits of a globally connected supply chains and American and allied companies leading the way in cutting edge technologies. Policies ranging from R&D support to immigration policy, from intellectual property rules to STEM in education all affect this innovation ecosystem. Intellectual property rules are an area of particular concern for 5G innovation leadership. Paradoxically, the Biden administration has encouraged leadership in international standards-setting organizations (SSOs) by weakening protection for standards-essential patents (SEPs)—patents vital for an innovation leader to participate in setting an international standard.

The western response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has also demonstrated a newfound willingness to use Geotech tools and potentially reshaping the global technology competition—the prospect of wholly cutting off Russia from the global high-tech marketplace accelerates the divide between authoritarian and liberal societies’ digital domains. Strategic competition over technology will only accelerate, even as connections are splintered. Here cooperation with allies is vital as supply chains are reshaped and resecured, competition to set international standards intensifies, and being the first in future technologies present opportunities to leapfrog competitors’ products and aims.

During the pandemic, we have come to understand the importance of our connectivity—both for commerce and personal entertainment. As we adapt to the realities of a transformed, increasingly competitive world, with ever more networked devices, secure, reliable connectivity is vital. As the backbone of future digital connectivity and the foundation of future digital innovation, it is important not only to protect the security of 5G networks but also to ensure that the U.S. and its allies lead in the innovations going into 5G networks and future technologies such as 6G. There is already a race to 6G leadership underway, and governments and companies around the world are engaged in the initial steps to develop 6G technology and set future standards in that field. These first steps towards 6G and the ongoing race for 5G leadership are closely intertwined—what we do now in 5G sets the course for 6G. Looking back, lessons from the 4G to 5G race can inform us of successes and failures. Looking ahead, policy choices like investments in future R&D, support for architectures like Open RAN, and protection of intellectual property all have ramifications not just today but also years ahead.

Throughout 2021 and early 2022, CSPC continued its Geotech engagement with policymakers, private sector leaders, and academic experts regarding strategically critical technologies, policies to promote innovation leadership, geopolitical and strategic competition, and trends in commerce, trade, and technology. A major segment of this research has included 5G networks and related supply chains such as semiconductors and other microelectronics. This report reflects, and respects, the off-the-record nature of these discussions, combined with open-source research and the analysis of CSPC staff, advisors, and fellows.

The report finds promise in the efforts underway, but concern about their slowing pace. Decisions made now have an impact years in the future when it comes to the shape of these innovations and the nature of technology leadership. Given the importance of 5G networks and future 6G leadership, the challenge is urgent, but we must be careful in our choices, focusing on the security and reliability of a critical technology.