Friday News Roundup — October 11, 2019
Abandoning the Kurds, China Calls a Foul on the NBA, plus news you may have missed
Good morning from Washington, D.C., where each week seems to have more developments than the previous one — and Congress isn’t even back from recess. For those fortunate enough to have one, the three day weekend is the light at the end of the tunnel, and, for everyone else, the red hot Nats are a happier conversation prompt.
Both sides appear to be digging in on impeachment, and while Congressional Republicans do not appear to be breaking with President Trump on impeachment, they are expressing their outrage over his decision to pull U.S. forces back in Syria.
Joshua leads off this week’s roundup looking at the decision in Syria and its deleterious impact on U.S. and allied security and credibility. Dan also covers the latest controversy with the NBA and China, and what it means for corporate leaders. Chris is on assignment this week. As always, we conclude with news you may have missed.
Abandoning the Kurds, and Our Credibility
Joshua Huminski
The President’s decision to withdraw American troops from the Syria-Turkey border has, in effect, greenlit a Turkish operation against the Kurds in that territory. No matter how it is spun, there is no other way to interpret this decision from the Oval Office.
It is a stain on America’s character, that the President is abandoning those who bravely stood up, fought and died alongside American servicemembers to roll back the Islamic State — a violent extremist organization that declared war on our country and the West writ large, launching countless attacks in Europe, seizing territory in Syria and Iraq, and perpetrating some of the most barbaric acts in recent history.
This is nothing more than snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. The campaign against the Islamic State will likely — until this point — be seen as a model campaign. It was one of the most successful and rapidly developed partnerships, that achieved incredible tactical and operational battlefield victories against a hardened, well trained, and fierce adversary. With a minimal U.S. footprint on-the-ground, America provided air support, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance assets, and indirect fire support to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), rolling back the Islamic State’s incredible territorial gains.
The SDF — the outgrowth of the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) partnering with Arab units — sustained over 11,000 casualties. By comparison, the United States lost six servicemembers and two civilians during the campaign to date. In the words of Graeme Wood of the Atlantic, “There’s a lot of empty cemetery plots in Arlington National Cemetery right now that would be filled with American bodies, but instead we had Kurds fighting for us. And there’s no other way to describe this than as a betrayal.”
This decision is staggering in its rashness and arrived at with no consultation with America’s allies or, apparently, the senior leadership of the U.S. military, which faced the unenviable task of attempting to rationalize and justify the president’s decision after it had already been announced. Indeed, it seems as though the President reached his own conclusions following a call with Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, on Sunday, 6 October.
In a statement, the White House said “The United States Armed Forces will not support or be involved in the operation, and United States forces, having defeated the ISIS territorial ‘Caliphate,’ will no longer be in the immediate area.” This fails to understand the difference between degraded and defeated. The Islamic State was certainly the former, but far from the latter. If anything, it is likely to be neither in the near future. Indeed, the President’s snap, but slowed, decision in December of 2018 to pull American forces out of Syria led to the resignation of then-Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis and Brett McGurk, then the special presidential envoy to the global coalition to defeat ISIL. Ultimately, 400 troops were left in place in February of this year.
This a decision that all but guarantees the resurgence of the Islamic State as the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces abandon the prisons it now guards, which hold upwards of 11,000 Islamic State fighters. This is to say nothing of the al-Hol camp, which holds upwards of 70,000 refugees, 25% of whom are related to active of fallen Islamic State fighters.
Given that there was no planning for the aftermath of this decision (let alone any consultation) and as a result, we may witness renewed attacks in the West by the Islamic State. It is certainly a victory for them — the anti-Islamic State coalition is now fractured and broken. The President himself said as much, failing to see the irony of his self-fulfilling prophecy: “Well they’re going to be escaping to Europe, that’s where they want to go, they want to go back to their homes.”
This obviously did not need to happen this way. The United States went to great lengths to placate and reassure Turkey, hoping to address its long-standing grievances with and fear of the Kurds. The United States established joint patrols along areas of Turkish concern and deployed 150 troops to monitor and enforce the “safe zone”. Clearly this was not enough and, with the President’s decision (in which he may have been “rolled”), Ankara got just what it wanted — carte blanche to pursue its own aims. Ostensibly Ankara wants to establish its own “safe zone” to resettle the Syrian refugees in its territory, but that shouldn’t be taken at face value.
This is a decision of such staggering consequence — the outright abandonment of America’s Kurdish allies, the abdication of responsibility, and the almost certain sacrifice of America’s final shred of credibility on the international stage. While both the Republicans and Democrats, in a rare sign of unity, condemned the decision, their protests will ultimately have little effect. While the President’s threatened that if Turkey did something that in his “great and unmatched wisdom, consider to be off limits [sic],” he “will totally destroy and obliterate the Economy of Turkey.” His past approaches suggest that this is simply rhetoric, not to mention, no one is quite sure how one would destroy the economy of a member of the G20 and NATO.
Our country sacrificed both blood and treasure to build its credibility — credibility that when we said we would stand by our allies and partners we would. That when they asked for aid, we would come. We asked the Kurds, certainly not natural ideological bedfellows, to stand with us and fight on our behalf, only to abandon them, and for what? What could we possibly gain by doing so? This was not a massive military operation — down from 1,000 to 400 at most. Together with the SDF and 80 countries, the coalition rolled by the Islamic State with incredible efficiency and efficacy. (To say nothing of the fact that the combined arms effort led to the obliteration of Russian-backed mercenaries, resulting in the death of 200–300 Russians.)
There is no strategic calculus in this decision. There is no basic math, let alone calculus. There is nothing to be gained, only things to be lost — international credibility, future partners on the battlefield, the moral high ground, and regional power to Russia and Iran. By pulling out and allowing a Turkish incursion into Syria against the Kurds, the United States has effectively given up any say in the final outcome of the anti-Islamic State campaign and the final disposition of forces, political power, and energy resources in the Syrian Civil War. Moscow will have a say, Ankara will have a say, Damascus will certainly have a say, but Washington will not.
When America goes to war in the future and asks for local allies and partners, it should not be surprised to find them absent, or questioning America’s commitments. At this point they would be right in doing so.
The Snowflake Kingdom
Dan Mahaffee
A new and surprising front was opened in U.S.-China tensions this week as the NBA found itself at the crux of the debate over China’s growing influence. The controversy arose when Houston Rockets General Manager Daryl Morey tweeted, and later deleted, “Fight for Freedom, Stand with Hong Kong.”
This statement immediately caused widespread outrage among Chinese leadership, and the nation’s state-run press quickly activate its nationalist outrage playbook. Chinese firms quickly ended their marketing and media partnerships with the NBA, while league officials scrambled to balance placating Beijing with maintaining the league’s progressive image.
Beijing has demonstrated its willingness to leverage market access and Chinese partnerships to ensure that the foreign private sector tows the Communist Party line. Of all the outlets to weigh in on China’s growing soft power, it was South Park that thoroughly lampooned U.S. corporate subservience to Beijing with all its crass irreverence. Since this is a family news roundup, we won’t reprint what South Park said. However, the episode called out the U.S. entertainment industry for submitting itself to Beijing’s censorship in order to ensure its access to the Chinese market. Needless to say, not long after this South Park episode aired, it was as if the show had never existed for internet users on the wrong side of the Great Firewall.
The examples of China’s influence in Hollywood are myriad, and growing, but a recent example stands out: In the recent trailer for the upcoming Top Gun sequel, the patches on the bomber jacket of Pete “Maverick” Mitchell had been changed. In the original Top Gun, Maverick’s jacket had Japanese and Taiwanese flags on the back. In the trailer for the new film, they’re replaced with something completely different—looking like the Citgo logo and the flag of Marvin the Martian. Why? Because this time Paramount Pictures’ financial partners are owned by Chinese media conglomerate Tencent.
More and more examples of this are drawing attention, and the influence can be subtle, like the Top Gun example above, or, even this week, where ESPN’s coverage of the NBA controversy included an on-screen map of China that included its territorial claims not only over Taiwan and the South China Sea, but also territory disputed with India. It is worth remembering that ESPN’s corporate parent Disney has two theme parks in China, and the Chinese market has provided 12% of the global gross for the Disney-Marvel Avengers film franchise. Nevermind the fact that Winnie the Pooh is banned in China because the regime did not see the humor when social media started to compare the physique of a stuffed-bear-come-to-life with that of Chinese President Xi Jinping.
The Chinese will say that their outrage comes from the centuries of humiliation suffered during the late Qing dynasty and colonial powers’ forays into China. Indeed, through the Opium Wars, the Taiping Rebellion, invasion and civil war, and the tumult of the Maoist area and Cultural Revolution, China has indeed suffered greatly. Yet, it is clear that China has moved far beyond those era. Today, it is the same China that confidently marches its advanced arsenal past Tiananmen Gate, trumpets its economic power, yet is thrown into apoplexy by a Tweet from a basketball GM who would go unrecognized, save to the most ardent fans, just one week ago.
For the Chinese regime, keeping these historical grievances simmering is a useful tool for maintaining power. That the Communist Party has restored stability and greatness to China, in the face of hostile foreigners, is an oft-repeated justification for the legitimacy of Communist Party rule. At the same time, western companies have sought access to China, while western policymakers long believed that commercial engagement would lead to further political reform. At the end of the Cold War, such an approach was understandable. As French philosopher, and fellow traveler of Che Guevera, Régis Debray said, “there is more power in rock music and blue jeans than the entire Red Army.”
Economic and cultural soft power were just as important as military power in winning the Cold War, and one can easily argue that they were even more important than military power in prevailing in a battle of ideas. For those behind the Iron Curtain, western culture and fashion stood in stark contrast to the drab monotony of planned Communist economies. While the leaders of the Soviet Union and Eastern Bloc had to open their political systems at the same time they opened their economies, Chinese leadership bet that they could open the economy while maintaining a political stranglehold.
Today, we now see that the Chinese have flipped the script to use our own economic engagement to spread their censorship overseas. For western companies, there is the reputational issue to deal with, especially as the American public and policymakers begin to understand how Chinese censorship is affecting American culture and commerce. Does this mean that our companies will further censor themselves, but in a more subtle or secretive manner? Is there a level of management or influence in a company where comments on China matter, or is every company responsible for policing the stances of their employees to avoid running afoul of China? Additionally, if China sees no consequence for wielding its power in this manner, where is the line?
The Chinese leadership has long claimed that it has no desire to export its ideology, yet at the same time, it forces self-censorship abroad with harsh blowback against those who don’t comply. In a way, this is the most subversive approach to a battle of ideas, using your adversaries’ cultural and economic strengths—and the almighty dollar—against them.
News You May Have Missed
California Struck with Massive Power Outage
PG&E Corp., the utility company that was the subject of controversy following severe wildfires that California recently experienced, is once again in hot water. In order to prevent downed power lines that may cause similar wildfires, the company shut off power to nearly 600,000 customers, including hundreds of thousands of households. The outage has likely affected millions of people in northern California. Many customers have been agitated by the company’s response to the outage, often citing an inoperable website (an issue that has now been resolved). PG&E has announced that it will take between 1 and 5 days to restore power to the affected customers.Southern California Edison also saw fit to shut power off to 13,000 customers due to the danger of wildfires in the area surrounding Los Angeles.
Powell Tries to Maintain Fed Independence
At a documentary screening on the Chairman of the Federal Reserve during the Roosevelt administration, current Fed Chairman Jay Powell gave remarks supporting the independence of the Fed. In indirect response to President Trump’s attacks against Powell himself and the institution as a whole, Chairman Powell stressed the importance of the institution’s ability to rise above the political fray. Speaking of his predecessor Marriner S. Eccles, Chairman Powell said ““From my perspective as Fed chair, he is responsible more than any other person for the fact that the United States today has an independent central bank — a central bank able to make decisions in the long-term best interest of the economy, without regard to the political pressures of the moment.”
New York City Sees Rise in Hate Crimes
The NYPD’s statistics on hate crimes indicate that the city has seen a concerning uptick in the frequency of crimes based on race, religion, or sexual orientation. 323 hate crimes were recorded by the NYPD in the period between New Years’ Day and early October, which represents an increase of 80 from the same period last year. Anti-semitic crimes have seen the greatest uptick, with an increase of 53% from 2018. A whopping 170 of the hate crimes recorded this year were perpetrated against people of Jewish faith, representing over half of the offences.Hate crimes against African-Americans numbered 31, and there were 42 attacks based on sexual orientation, increasing roughly 7–8% each.
Two Dead in Far Right Attack on German Synagogue
A right-wing terrorist, hoping to ignite anti-semitic attacks around the world, killed two and wounded two, outside a synagogue in the German city of Halle on Yom Kippur, the holiest day of the Jewish faith. The terrorist, aged 27, also had explosives in his car that he failed to detonate. Live-streaming the attack online via the Twitch platform, the terrorist failed to enter the synagogue, but then fired on passersby. Leaders in the Jewish community are questioning why there was no police presence at the synagogue, given the increase in anti-semitic and far right movements’ activity in Europe.
Uighur Professor, former president of Xinjiang University, feared to be on Chinese Death Row
Tashpolat Tiyip, a Uighur geographer and world-renowned academic, is feared to be facing imminent execution according to his friends and international human rights groups. Dr. Tiyip disappeared in 2017, as Chinese authorities cracked down on majority Muslim Xinjiang provence. While UN experts estimate that over a million Uighurs and other minorities are being held in Chinese “re-education camps,” accounts from the region note that special attention has been paid to the Uighur intelligentsia, as Beijing engages in what a researcher described as “tantamount to cultural genocide.”
The views of contributors are their own, and not that of CSPC.