Friday News Roundup - August 9, 2024
The American public has been transfixed by a roller coaster few weeks in a nearly unprecedented presidential election season, one that has seen a former president and presumed Republican nominee nearly assassinated, a sitting president abandon his reelection bid, and the vice president consolidate the Democratic Party’s nomination in record time. Suffice to say that when Republican nominee Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris meet to debate on September 10, they will have plenty to talk about.
While the United States has been distracted by a historically volatile election, however, the rest of the world has held its collective breath as conflicts in the Middle East and Europe that have already destabilized the global order show signs of escalating dangerously.
U.S. allies and nations throughout the Middle East are bracing for Iran’s promised retaliation after presumed Israeli strikes recently killed a top Hezbollah commander in Lebanon, and Hamas’s political chief in the heart of Tehran on July 31. A direct attack on U.S.-ally Israel from Iran, or an all-out assault by Hezbollah, the most powerful of Iran’s terrorist proxies, could easily plunge the entire region into a war that could draw U.S. military forces directly into the fray.
In an effort to avoid such a cataclysm, President Joe Biden and the leaders of Egypt and Qatar said this week that they were presenting a “final” cease-fire proposal to end the Israeli-Hamas war in Gaza. In a joint declaration the three leaders were unequivocal that the time has come to end the war.
“There is no further time to waste nor excuses from any party for further delay,” they said in the blunt joint statement. “It is time to release the [Israeli hostages held by Hamas], begin the ceasefire and implement this agreement. As mediators, if necessary, we are prepared to present a final bridging proposal that resolves the remaining implementation issues.”
While Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu agreed to the ceasefire meeting scheduled for next week, it is not clear that he or Hamas leaders are actually willing or able to reach a deal. Netanyahu’s hard-right political partners have threatened to dissolve his ruling coalition if he agrees to a ceasefire, and in response to Israel’s apparent assassination of Hamas’ political leader, the terrorist group named his replacement as Yahya Sinwar, one of the architects of the horrific October 7 attacks on Israel.
Meanwhile, Russia’s unprovoked war of aggression against Ukraine also escalated dangerously this week, with Ukrainian forces launching the largest incursion onto Russian soil since the war began. In the surprise attack into Russia, Ukrainian forces captured several villages and are battling to seize control of a transportation hub on Russia’s side of the border. Despite early gains, it is not clear how long Ukrainian forces can hold the seized territory or what the larger strategy was behind the surprise offensive. Russian television released videos in recent days showing columns of Russian military trucks, artillery pieces and tanks heading for the battlespace.
CSPC President Glenn Nye discusses the challenges facing democratic institutions, particularly in the United States, as they experience increasing threats both internally and externally, in an article for the Diplomatic Courier. To highlight how democratic institutions can resist complacency and partisan tribalism, he points to the reforms that they should pursue to maintain effective governance.
James Kitfield is a Senior Fellow at CSPC
News You Might Have Missed
Escalating Tensions Between Israel and Iran Impact Global Markets
By Caroline Schlossel
Global financial markets are shifting significantly towards safe-haven assets as tensions between Israel and Iran escalate. Investors are moving away from riskier assets, favoring traditional safe havens such as gold and government bonds. Israeli stocks have been particularly affected, with the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange (TASE) experiencing notable declines due to fears of a potential Iranian attack. The benchmark TA-35 Index dropped by as much as 3.1%, marking its steepest fall since October, as investor anxiety over the geopolitical situation intensifies.
Indian and global equities have so far managed to withstand the immediate impact of escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, but investors remain vigilant for any signs of further escalation. Concerns are mainly focused on potential disruptions to crude oil supplies, given the Middle East’s status as the world’s largest oil-producing region. The geopolitical tensions have already led to volatility in oil prices, with Brent crude futures dropping 0.7% to $76.28 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures down 0.6% to $72.95 as of August 5.
As the situation remains tense, both countries are on high alert, and the potential for conflict continues to be closely monitored by global financial analysts and investors. Financial markets across the Middle East have tumbled, with concerns over a potential Iranian attack on Israel adding to the bearish sentiment already present due to a global equity downturn.
Sudan’s Escalating Humanitarian Crisis
By Caroline Schlossel
Famine has struck parts of long-suffering Sudan, particularly in North Darfur’s Zamzam camp, as the country grapples with another “man-made crisis” stemming from the ongoing conflict. The World Food Program’s Famine Review Committee confirmed the dire situation, marking the first such declaration in over seven years. A staggering 26 million people now face acute hunger in Sudan, with more than half the population experiencing crisis levels of food insecurity.
Humanitarian efforts to address this catastrophe face significant obstacles. The Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces routinely impose restrictions on cross-border routes, impeding aid delivery. The closure of the Adre crossing from Chad has exacerbated the crisis, with the number of people facing emergency levels of hunger nearly doubling since February. Despite these challenges, aid organizations continue to explore alternative methods, including airlifts, to reach affected communities.
In addition, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has been accused of exacerbating the conflict by supplying arms to the RSF, allowing it to sustain military operations. The UAE’s involvement is closely tied to its interests in Sudan’s gold trade, with reports indicating that Sudanese gold has been smuggled into Emirati markets, further fueling the conflict.
The international community has called for immediate action to prevent further suffering. Demands include an immediate ceasefire, unimpeded humanitarian access, and increased funding for relief operations. However, the humanitarian appeal for Sudan still needs to be funded, having received only 31% of the $2.7 billion needed. As the situation deteriorates, experts warn that without swift intervention, the crisis threatens to engulf the entire region, potentially destabilizing neighboring countries and exacerbating existing geopolitical tensions.
Caroline Schlossel is a CSPC Intern
Queens Man Is Convicted of Spying on Dissidents for China
By Daphne Nwobike
Shujun Wang, a 75-year-old Chinese academic based in Queens, New York, was convicted on Tuesday, August 6, of serving as a spy and informant for the Chinese Communist Party. Wang, who immigrated to the United States in 1994, engaged in espionage using his role as a pro-democracy activist to gain the trust and support of other activists while siphoning critical information about them to China’s intelligence agency.
Despite contributing to the founding of the Hu Yaobang and Zhao Ziyang Memorial Foundation, an organization dedicated to upholding democracy, Wang actively colluded with China’s Ministry of State Security (MSS), which oversees the PRC’s foreign intelligence collection. According to the Office of Public Affairs, since 2006, he worked with the MSS to collate information about individuals and groups deemed subversive by the PRC, such as Taiwanese independence groups, Hong Kong democracy activists, and Uyghur and Tibetan activists. Wang fostered an open line of communication with the MSS by making frequent trips to China, having in-person meetings with MSS officials, and using encrypted messaging platforms to receive tasks and exchange files. He also utilized email diaries shared with MSS officials, which contained information about his “private conversations with prominent dissidents, as well as the activities of pro-democracy activists and human rights organizations.” In total, Wang shared 163 diary entries with the MSS, all containing private information.
Although the FBI attempted to uncover the truth about Wang’s actions through interviews spanning from 2017 to 2021, Wang continuously denied having any connections to Chinese officials. Wang will be sentenced on January 9, 2025, with the possibility of serving 25 years in prison.
Daphne Nwobike is a CSPC Intern.
Thailand’s Courts Back Royalist Military Establishment
By Saakshi Philip
On August 7, 2024, Thailand’s Constitutional Court ordered the dissolution of the Move Forward Party, the country’s most popular political party, over its pledge to reform the stringent lese-majesty law, which criminalizes criticism of the monarchy. The court’s decision also barred the party’s leaders, including former leader Pita Limjaroenrat, from politics for ten years. Move Forward won the most votes in the 2023 election, appealing to young people and a broader electorate eager for political change after years of military rule under former coup leader Prayuth Chan-Ocha.
Despite its electoral success, Move Forward faced strong opposition from the military and royalist establishment, which blocked Pita from becoming prime minister and kept the party from wielding political power. The court ruled unanimously that Move Forward’s proposal to amend the lese-majesty law was an unlawful attempt to undermine the monarchy, leading to the party’s dissolution. This decision is seen as part of a broader pattern in Thai politics, where courts have frequently disbanded parties challenging the conservative order.
In response to the ruling, Pita and other party leaders announced plans to establish a new party, signaling their determination to continue advocating for democratic reforms. The dissolution of Move Forward underscores the deep-seated power struggle in Thailand between reformist forces and the entrenched royalist military establishment. While the decision is unlikely to immediately spark large-scale protests, it highlights ongoing tensions and the desire for political change, particularly among Thailand’s younger generation.
Saakshi Philip is a CSPC Intern.