Friday News Roundup — May 5, 2023
This week, Democrats and Republicans drew battle lines over the raising of the federal debt ceiling. At this writing, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-California) had presented a proposal to raise the debt ceiling in exchange for reducing the federal deficit through cuts in a number of programs. The White House responded by saying it rejects the “MAGA Republicans’ plan.” The President has however agreed to meet with Congressional leaders from both the House and Senate next week on the issue. House Democrats are considering using a procedure known as a discharge petition to bring debt ceiling legislation to a vote without spending cuts. This move — described as a long shot — would require some Republicans to abandon the McCarthy proposal.
People may justifiably argue about which is more important — raising the debt ceiling, without which the United States government could experience default possibly by June 1, or reducing the federal deficit, which is at a record level and could undermine future investments and obligations. However, both have serious repercussions for the economy. And addressing these issues is part of the work responsibility of elected representatives in government. The best thing for U.S. competitiveness and economic prosperity would be to address both, and the responsible thing would be to act in a collaborative manner. This of course demands compromise, which is a key element of democracy, but not always a prevailing practice. There is a role to play for partisanship and ideology in staking out positions for public debate, and compromise entails risk: members need to explain to their constituents why they conceded on a particular issue. But a system without compromises also has risks. It can produce gridlock or sub-optimal and non-durable policies. Former Representative Lee Hamilton (D-Indiana) pointed out in an essay on compromise in 2019, “Pretty much every sentence in our Constitution was the product of compromise, crafted by people who felt passionately about the issues they confronted yet found a way to agree on language that would enable the country to function.”
As Congress and the White House postpone action on these pressing matters, the migrant crisis worsens at the U.S. southern border. This problem is rooted in multiple causes, including expiration of the COVID-era “Title 42” emergency border security measures, economic and political instability within parts of Latin America, and opportunistic human smuggling cartels. There have been over 10,000 apprehensions per day in recent weeks. Shelters in border states and destination cities are overflowing, and mayors are fighting with governors over who should shoulder the burden of taking care of people who have been released with their asylum hearings pending. The Biden Administration said it was sending 1,500 troops to the border to help the beleaguered U.S. Customs and Border Patrol with “administrative tasks.” This was a tough pill to swallow for a team that had criticized Donald Trump for deploying troops to the border when he was president, and which has been criticized for being slow to put in place measures to address the historic numbers of arrivals at the southern border. Like the debt ceiling/deficit reduction, border security is a substantive and complex policy problem that deserves and demands more than stop-gap remedies or political exploitation by either party.
Meanwhile, the U.S. jobs market continued to show high demand for workers. This week the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate from 5% to 5.25% in an effort to tame stubborn inflation. The Fed signaled this would be that last hike in 2023.
In U.S.-China news, Senate Democrats announced they are drafting legislation to build on the CHIPS Act’s domestic investments in key technology areas and fund programs that would provide an alternative to China’s Belt and Road initiative, according to Reuters. Tech policy observers and many teenagers are still waiting for U.S. action against Chinese social media app TikTok, and the White House is expected later this month to premiere new stipulations on U.S. private investments in China.
In what could be a subplot in Netflix’s hit series “The Diplomat,” Russian media reported that an explosive drone struck the Kremlin. The Russian president’s office blamed Ukraine — then the United States — and said it was “a planned terrorist act and an assassination attempt on the president.” Ukraine has denied any involvement and warns that Russian accusations were probably a pretext for more attacks on Ukraine’s territory.
For the Diplomatic Courier, Joshua C. Huminski, the Director of the Mike Rogers Center for Intelligence & Global Affairs, reviewed “White Sun War” by Major General Mick Ryan (Australian Army, ret.). A fictional account of a war between the United States and China over Taiwan, Ryan’s book is a concept-driven story that provides readers deeper insights into long-running defense debates and the challenges of modern warfare. CSPC hosted Major General Ryan for a discussion this week, the video of which will be live on YouTube soon.
CSPC’s James Kitfield will appear on the NPR program “1A” this weekend in a segment on national security. In today’s roundup Robert Gerber unpacks some expert forecasts for the war in Ukraine and Veera Parko reports on President Zelenksky’s visit to Finland. We close with News You May Have Missed.
Transatlantic Security Outlook: “We’ll Know This Summer if We’ve Provided Enough Support to Ukraine”
Robert W. Gerber
Swedish Ambassador to the United States Karin Olofsdotter speaks before a national security panel at House of Sweden in Washington, DC on May 4 (Photo: author)
Former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine and U.S. Institute of Peace Executive Vice President Ambassador Bill Taylor, speaking on a national security panel hosted by the Swedish-American Chamber of Commerce in Washington, DC on May 4, predicted that Ukraine would win the war that Russia started against Ukraine. He also said that Ukraine should join NATO after this happens. His argument was that Ukraine deserves membership because it will have demonstrated effectiveness in defeating the Russian army and that Ukraine would need the NATO Article 5 guarantee after the war is over, both as a safeguard against future threats and because of the importance of security to investment and reconstruction. He assessed that U.S. support for Ukraine was solid despite some fatigue, which was to be expected after a 14 month war. Europe, he commented, has been very strong in its support for Ukraine’s defense despite Europe’s suffering “higher levels of pain.” Taylor added, “We’ll know this summer if we’ve provided enough support” to Ukraine. The NATO summit which will take place in Vilnius, Lithuania in July will be a key opportunity for allies to take stock. Taylor noted that Ukraine needs long-range drones and he predicted that it would have F-16 fighter jets soon. He believed that Russia’s intelligence agency FSB was likely responsible for the recent attack on the Kremlin, but that it also could have been committed by Russians who oppose the war. Ambassador Taylor also called for seizing the $300 billion in Russian central bank reserves (something we have reported on previously in the Roundup) and repurposing these funds for Ukraine’s reconstruction — a project he assessed would cost $500 billion.
On the subject of Sweden’s bid to join NATO, a Swedish embassy representative underscored strong Swedish public support for NATO membership. She said Sweden has “addressed every single thing” in the memorandum of understanding with Türkiye and cited strong bilateral cooperation with Türkiye on counter-terrorism and arms sales. “There is nothing more we can do,” she added. When asked about the end-state of the Ukraine war, she said Ukraine would decide on the end-state but that Europe’s hope was for Russia to “never want to attempt this again in the middle of Europe.” Taylor added that Ukraine’s place was in the EU, and that Russia probably feared this as much as it feared Ukraine joining NATO.
These assessments by leading experts underscore the strong transatlantic unity in support for Ukraine. But our diplomats have more work to do: most of Asia (except Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, and New Zealand), the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America have still not joined the sanctions regime against Russia.
Zelensky Meets Nordics in Helsinki
Veera Parko
Image via presidentti.fi
On May 3, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky made a surprise visit to Finland, a recent NATO member. He met with heads of state of all Nordic nations: Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, and Iceland. The Ukrainian leader has not made many in-person trips to other countries after the Russian invasion started (he has been to the United States, Belgium, Poland, France, and the United Kingdom). After Finland, Zelensky will, for the first time since the beginning of the war, visit Germany in person.
It is, perhaps, no surprise that Zelensky chose to visit Finland now. Finland just became NATOs 31st member state. Nordic nations have been firm supporters of Ukraine´s resistance battle against Russia and represent an increasingly important geostrategic region. Nordic countries have provided Ukraine with almost $4.5 billion in military support, and significant civilian and humanitarian support.
In Helsinki, Zelensky reiterated Ukraine´s will to join NATO and sought a reaffirmation of NATO’s open door policy. In a joint statement released after the summit, Nordic countries strongly reaffirmed their support for continuing to support Ukraine both in the military and civilian sectors. On Ukraine’s NATO aspirations, the language remained vague: Nordic NATO members will continue to support Ukraine “on its path towards future membership.” The Nordics also expressed support for Ukraine’s Peace Formula.
Finns warmly welcomed President Zelensky in Helsinki, and the visit was regarded by many as sending a message to Moscow — Nordic nations continue to stand firmly by Ukraine. According to Zelensky, Ukrainian bookstores are busy selling books on the Finnish Winter War in 1939–1940. Reflecting on his Finnish hosts’ past experiences of a Russian invasion and a country’s struggle to deter the aggressor, Zelensky concluded: “The old capital of the aggressor state is within several hundred kilometers from here, from Helsinki, but due to our joint security efforts, your historic winter fight for freedom and our brave fight now, the aggressor will never make its way to Helsinki.”
News You May Have Missed
China Denies Targeting Canadian MP, Accuses Canada of “Slander”
A Canadian newspaper reported that Canada’s intelligence agency believes that Beijing sought to target and intimidate Hong Kong-based relatives of Canadian MP Michael Chong. Mr. Chong has been outspoken about the PRC’s human rights practices. Beijing had already sanctioned Mr. Chong when he introduced a resolution on Chinese treatment of ethnic Uighurs. Ottawa has summoned the Chinese ambassador for a reprimand and is trying to decide whether to expel Chinese diplomats over the matter. The Chinese foreign ministry said it was “strongly dissatisfied with Canada’s groundless slander and defamation of the normal performance of duties by the Chinese embassy and consulates in Canada.”
Chinese State Media: U.S. National Security “Abuse” Undermines Trade Relationship
After Secretary of Treasury Janet Yellen and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan delivered remarks on U.S. international economic policy last week, Chinese state media outlet Xinhua published reactions by a handful of economists located in Pakistan, the UK, and the United States that criticized the direction of U.S. trade policy. Specifically, the article said the U.S. should not prioritize security ahead of “trust or economics.” The article cautioned against decoupling the U.S. and Chinese economies, and posited that Washington’s policies would hurt the U.S. economy and disrupt global trade. The authors argue that the United States should not “politicize” the U.S.-China trade relationship. The article does not mention that Beijing has routinely used trade retaliation as a political weapon against countries it had disagreements with, like Australia, Japan, and Lithuania.
President Biden Creates Path to Sudan Sanctions
On May 4, President Biden signed an executive order to allow sanctions on individuals responsible for the recent violence in Sudan. No sanctions have been issued yet, and the executive order gives the President the option to formally implement sanctions. President Biden has expressed hopes that this will pressure the two belligerent military commanders of the current conflict, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo and Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, to seek a lasting peace agreement.
Philippine President Talks U.S., Taiwan Strategy
On May 4, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said that the agreement this year to grant the United States access to more military bases in the Philippines was not intended to be used for “offensive action,” but instead that military bases could be “useful” in a conflict involving Taiwan. China has said this decision was “stoking the fire” in the Taiwan Straits. Talks between President Marcos and the White House also discussed joint patrols between U.S. and Philippine personnel to preserve freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, where China has a strong military presence.
The views of authors are their own and not that of CSPC.